Climate Tutorial: How to do Attribution Studies

The alarmists love to do what they call "attribution studies," but this is all just a scam. They like to make these things they call "rapid attribution" after extreme events so that they can blame everything bad on climate change as fast as possible. But they are doing this all wrong. The king of doing attribution correctly is John Shewchuk, who is my absolute favorite climate hero. He knows how to do this correctly. His scientific method is a little over my head, but it seems to me that his appreoach can be summarized like this:

1. First you have to decide that no weather event can be caused by human activity because that's what raging communists and alarmist cultists say.
2. Second, you look for a natural event that happened before the event you're studying, and you blame the event on that.
3. Third, you show a graph showing the event and make an arrow pointing to that event with a description of what you say caused it.
4. Fourth, you mock the "science" that uses "measurements" and "data" and "evidence" and (gasp!) models, since these always seem to point to human activity, meaning that these are alarmist, communist propaganda.

Here's an example of an attribution study done properly by John Shewchuk. He proved that the warming spike that began in 2023 was caused by the Tonga eruption back in 2024. This is about as rapid an attribution study as can be done, since all you have to do is take a graph from UAH and annotate it with what caused it, adding an arrow pointing to the graph.

Now Shewchuk is an advanced expert at attribution, so he can do even more than this. For instance, with added brilliance that can come only from the scientific method, Shewchuk replaced the arrow with clip art of a smoking gun. This makes his argument even stronger. This is from 2025.

Now, Shewchuk is so intelligent and well-informed that he knows about all the "science" studies that say that the Tonga eruption probably cooled the earth a little bit. But Shewchuk is up to the challenge of debunking all that "science." The trick here is to quote the "science" and then add more arrows. Clearly if temperatures warmed, the Tonga eruption couldn't have been a cooling influence. The arrows with a text box saying "Tonga" prove this.

So Shewchuk has proven all the "science" wrong, and all it took was some arrows drawn on graphs. It's amazing how bad the alarmists are at doing science properly! Now that Shewchuk has proven that the Tonga eruption was the cause of the 2024 warming spike, he can use it for just about anything. It looks like Shewchuk is going to show conclusively that it's also responsible for the developing El Nino. This is from just a couple days ago.

Clearly Shewchuk is a genius! Think of all the money that gets spent for the alarmist agenda that's destroying the planet. They run their models. They collect their data. The do their "analysis." All to support an agenda that can be proven wrong by drawing some arrows on graphs. Genius!